More Snowy Pictures From Bend Oregon

I wanted to share some more pictures of the 12+ inches of snow that fell in town.  Shoveling snow is one heckuva workout!  I was sweating like crazy last night in 14 degree temperatures shoveling the snow off mine and my neighbor's driveway and sidewalk for nearly two hours last night.

This Past Weekend's Snow In Bend And On Mt. Bachelor

This weekend's snow in Bend was beautiful as you can see by the photos below as the town was covered in snow that came and went starting midweek, carrying over through Sunday.  

The snow at Mt. Bachelor was incredible!  Seriously incredible with two feet of soft, fluffy snow falling over 48 hours.  It was a great weekend for skiing, especially Red Chair, which is often a forgotten gem on Mt. Bachelor.  

Below are some pictures from the past few days of snow in Bend, from River Bend Park, The Old Mill, Wanoga Snow Park, and Mt. Bachelor.   

Mt Bachelor Snow In October 2016!

This morning, I was driving back to the house after taking Artie on his walk along the river trail and noticed that the Three Sisters were covered in snow.   Then I checked the Mt. Bachelor website and saw the webcams, which showed the mountain covered in snow.  Hard to believe that on October 6th, we'd have a mountain covered in snow.  

I know that we'll go through some ebs and flows of this snow melting in the coming days and weeks.  But still, this is a good sign that we'll have a nice cold, snowy winter here in Bend.  

Snow Visible From Bend On Mt Bachelor

This morning from River Bend Park in Bend, we had the first sighting of snow up on Mt. Bachelor, which fell last night.  Normally, I'd be pretty happy about the first sign of winter, but it's only October 3rd and I'd still like to experience fall here in beautiful Central Oregon.  

Plus, it was very cold this morning with a slight wind that made it even chillier.  

Hopefully, we have a sunny and not so windy October here in Bend because I'd like to get some running and cycling in before the snow arrives. 

Pretty Cool Photos Of Palmer Chairlift At Timberline Lodge

Summer skiing is around the corner which means that Timberline Lodge on Mt. Hood has opened Palmer snowfield for spring and eventually summer skiing.  

I've skied Palmer each of the past two summers and it's a magical experience.  There are people from all over the world skiing up on the glacier, from Olympic skiers to kids from Japan getting their two weeks of summer skiing in for the year.  Add to that the summer tourist season and it's an overall awesome time to be on the mountain.  

Take a look at some of the photos below:  

Until then, we have spring skiing at Mt. Bachelor through May 31st, so I'm going to try reaching my goal of 50 days of skiing in for the 2015-2016 season.

Bend Roundabout Road Rage

One of the great things about living in Bend is the traffic roundabouts all over town. They make it pretty easy to navigate to any place within 5-10 minutes.  But they also create moments of unintentional poor driving judgment by people entering the roundabout in front of another car with the right-of-way already inside the roundabout.

A couple of nights ago, I was running along Mt. Washington and from behind me heard the blaring horn that could only come from a roundabout infraction.   Instead of just a quick beep, the driver blaring their horn continued and sped up to within 15 feet of the small car that had probably cut in front of them inside the roundabout.  

It was ridiculous and the tailgating, blaring horn driver was being a total jerk.  Get over it.  It was probably a momentary lapse in judgment by the other driver.  We've all been there in our roundabout experience.  We've cut in too soon or been cut off by another driver who jumped in front of us, causing for a momentary dangerous driving moment.  It happens to all of us.  

But to blare the horn and tailgate another driver or something that might happen once every six months is completely stupid.  Just give a "Serenity Now!" and move on.  

The American Dream Of Getting Rich Quick

When I was younger I wanted to be very rich and I wanted it to happen overnight.  Every time I tried taking a shortcut, I was sent back to the very beginning to pay my dues until I learned the lessons that I was supposed to learn.  Since I can be pretty hard-headed, this period lasted about fifteen years, starting when I was 22 years old and going to age 37.  

Eventually though, I started to realize that I couldn't always make things happen overnight.  Patience was the virtue that I needed to embrace.  And this was pretty hard for someone with higher than average ambition to accept. 

But now, patience is something I'm pretty comfortable with.  If things don't happen overnight or on the schedule I wanted it to happen - oh well.  In due time, I'll get the result I wanted or I'll get the result I was supposed to get.  

In my day job of doing short-term private money loans for real estate investors and talking to aspiring real estate investors, I get to hear my past, present, and future self when talking to clients about the projects that they need financed.  I like these conversations.  They're the older and wiser conversations by people (me and the clients) who've been at it for a good length of time and have learned many of the tough lessons that come only with experience.  

On the flip side, I often get to listen to my former self when aspiring house flippers call asking about financing.  They have more than enough ambition to become a success.  Unfortunately, they haven't put in the time, don't have enough money, and won’t trust the little voice in their head telling them to not do the deal.  (I ignored this voice on two deals and have spent about $150,000 over five years paying off the hard money loans with a personal guaranty all because I didn't listen to my voice of reason). 

I hear desperation in the voices of aspiring house flippers.  I hear them idolizing someone else that they think is really successful at the business.  Chances are, the person being idolized is over-leveraged and taking on way too many projects than they can handle and if/when the market flattens or declines, will be in a tough financial spot.  

It's nice to have nearly come full circle by paying the price in time and money for the mistakes that I made in my twenties.  I've learned so much along the way that I can't begin to quantify.  The big lesson is that becoming financially wealthy takes time, patience, persistence, etc.  It's not an instant gratification thing.  Rather, it's a long-term process filled with ups and downs, mis-directions and re-directions, spanning several decades.  

I Find This Hard To Believe - No Coverage?

Sorry, but I find this story in Politico pretty hard to believe that Senator Ted Cruz doesn't have any health coverage.  I could see this being the case if he was a self-employed businessman who was hit by hard times in a depressed economic region.  But come on, he works for the government, who offers federal employees all kinds of health insurance options.  

According to Factcheck.org, there are over 300 different plans to chose from: 

According to the Congressional Research Service, the FEHBP offers about 300 different private health care plans, including five government-wide, fee-for-service plans and many regional health maintenance organization (HMO) plans, plus high-deductible, tax-advantaged plans. All plans cover hospital, surgical and physician services, and mental health services, prescription drugs and “catastrophic” coverage against very large medical expenses. There are no waiting periods for coverage when new employees are hired, and there are no exclusions for preexisting conditions.

Is it that hard for a guy or his staffers to start filling out the paperwork for health insurance?  It's not like he, an Ivy League educated attorney who argued cases in front of the Supreme Court with a wife on leave from Goldman Sachs, couldn't afford the $200/mo employee contribution to an $800/mo family coverage plan.   

I'd be interested in seeing what the fact checking news sites do with this little doozy.  To me, the story doesn't hold water.  However, maybe he really just let his insurance lapse as a political act of defiance against Obamacare, which he blamed for sinking the economy during a 21 hour filibuster in 2013.  

With the financial means and a job that provides numerous health insurance plans to choose from, it's really hard to believe someone working in the Senate is uninsured.  But, politicians have been known to fib from time to time when they need votes from unsuspecting voters.  

Interesting To Watch Economic Sentiment Come And Go

I read a lot online because I have this overarching need to understand how things work and so that I don't come off as uninformed when I write.  My fear of not knowing something fuels my highest value of continually learning.  

So in all of this reading, I came across an interesting information over the past week.  This article in The Orange County Register, "Beige Book: Fed Sees Western Real Estate As 'Robust'", did a great job showing the incredibly strong demand for real estate on the west coast:

Quoting directly, here’s what was said about Western real estate in 2016’s first Beige Book: 

Real estate market activity grew at a robust pace across most of the District. Demand for new residential units remains high, with contacts in many West Coast cities reporting ongoing reductions in vacancy rates. 

Residential construction activity grew substantially, with a somewhat stronger market for multifamily units than for single-family units. 

Housing prices rose further across the District, and contacts expressed concerns over affordability for low-income buyers. 

The Register, I think, did a brilliant job including Beige Book comments about where the market was five years ago:

And five years earlier: 

Demand in District residential and commercial real estate markets was largely unchanged at very low levels. The pace of home sales remained quite slow throughout the District. 

In addition, an abundance of foreclosed properties and short sales kept inventories of available homes elevated in most areas, which put downward pressure on prices and the pace of new home construction.

Five years ago, the real estate market was a mess.  Excess inventory ruled the day.  Everyone wanted to sell and nobody wanted to, or could, buy.  (Slight exaggeration).

Now, everyone wants to buy and nobody wants to sell.  Prices have come back close to Housing/Credit Bubble levels.  I hear people every week talking about how they want to get in now before prices get even higher, which makes me shake my head.  Have they seriously forgotten what happened in 2007-2011 where prices tanked and homes became really cheap?

Which leads me to oil prices.  Back in 2008, they peaked at $145.31 per barrel.  Today, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading at $27.40!  WTF!

In 2008, there was supposedly a shortage of oil in the world.  Whether that was true or not or was just trader and producer manipulation, prices skyrocketed as the American and global economy was tanking, which didn't make any sense to me at the time.  (Still doesn't). 

But today, the world is apparently awash in oil and with Iran's sanctions lifted, more cheap oil is coming to a gas pump near you "while supplies last!"   

Prices and sentiment across all asset classes fluctuate.  What's true today was not true 5-7 years ago nor will it be true five years in the future.  Oil prices will probably rise.  Home prices will probably fall.  Change is inevitable.  

Sunshine, Snow, and A Mountain Summit

I took the afternoon off to get in a few runs in the bowl at Mt. Bachelor's Summit yesterday.  The snow on the north side wasn't perfect, a little tracked out and icy/chunky on the high spots, but still, it was great.  Having the right skis that can go through the chopped up crud makes a huge difference.

Like I wrote last week, moving to Bend was the best decision that I've  made in a long time.  Being able to drive 25-30 minutes from my place on the west side of town to the mountain has been great.  Last year, it would take me almost 90 minutes to get from my place in Alameda to Mt. Hood Meadows, which was much more time in the car than I wanted to spend.

Plus, my 12.5 year old beagle doesn't like staying home alone so this short commute and get in as many runs in the shortest amount of time works well for the whole family.  (He's a family member and pretty certain that he's a person).

Skiing The Backside of Summit Chairlift At Mt Bachelor

I took these pictures last week at Mt. Bachelor right before dropping into the bowls on the backside of Summit Chairlift.  From top to bottom, which was the very bottom of the Northwest chair, the run took about 40 minutes.

The bowls were chopped up and cruddy, but that was fine.  Powder skis cut through the crud pretty easily.    Making it out through the trees, however, where there was 2-3 feet of powder and several air holes(?), was another story.  Luckily, I latched on with a group of three snowboarders for safety precautions to get through the trees and out to the cat track trail to the bottom of Northwest chair.

Forecasts call for traces of snow for the next few days and then a return of the dumping we had in December, which will be awesome.  Here's the Wx Cafe's Rufus La Lone's prediction for next week:

"Mountain SNOW will again be measured in FEET during this projected wet cycle.  The storms will tail into CA, as well, for a decent contribution to the Drought Relief Fund.  While timing may be off 12-24 hrs, expect the strongest series of storms to arrive Sat Jan 16, Sun night Jan 17, late Mon Jan 18 and Wed the 20th."

Next week should be a great time on Mt. Bachelor.  Until then, it's time to get back to work.

Twitter Users Making Fun Of Both The Media And Protesters In The Oregon Thing

One thing that I've learned during the internet era is that there are some brilliant and funny people all over the place who can display their wit without having to be a trained professional journalist.  Case in point is the Twitter users who responded to the militia men taking over the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge building outside of Burns, Oregon.

Hashtags have been flowing such as: #VanillaISIS, #YallQueda, #YeeHawd, #YokelHarem, #WhitSIS, #FailQueada, #SaturdayNightTreason.  

I'm not sure if the Twitter users are making fun of these guys as much as they're making fun of our media's double standard of vilifying and fear mongering Islamist extremists (along with Black Lives Matter & Occupy Wall Street) while handling white Christian abortion clinic bombers/shooters, white school & mall shooters, and now white cattle ranchers with much softer rhetoric.  

Ever since 2001, we've been inundated with all these news stories on what we need to be afraid of when in reality Americans are more likely to die from heart disease (junk food & soda), cancers, cigarettes, car accidents, accidental firearms, bicycle accidents, falling, talking on the cell phone while driving, excessive alcohol, medical mistakes, etc.  

Yet, cigarettes, alcohol, junk food, cars, bicycles, guns, cell phones, and hiking trails over rocky cliffs are still completely legal.  The US.gov doesn't spend trillions of dollars in a decade shutting down these industries like we've thrown away in the Middle East nor does the media provide non-stop coverage of imminent danger posed by smoking a pack of cigarettes each day while getting all three of your meals from McDonald's.  No, this stuff gets swept under the carpet even though the products, like tobacco, could lead to one's early, painful demise with cancers or other diseases stemming from prolonged use of a product that has been proven to kill.   

But that wouldn't be sensational and it wouldn't evoke the right emotional response from TV news viewers.  Nor could the media evoke the good/bad, black/white story line.  A slow death is boring.  Explosions and car crashes, like the intro to every episode of CHIPs, is what the viewers want to watch and that's what the news gives them.  

And since I mentioned my former childhood favorite TV show CHIPs, I thought I should give you what I know you definitely want to see and to keep the advertising dollars flowing to my blog.  Oh, that's right, I have no advertisers.  But still, I know you want to see a car crash that could never ever possibly happen on Southern California freeways.  But still, CHIPs kept stunt men employed and kept the Detroit factories humming by wrecking all those cars.  Enjoy!

https://youtu.be/afjxD_ywvS4

Someone Will Love This Ugly Piece Of Furniture

Since it was too cold and windy yesterday up on the mountain to ski, I made a quick trip into a furniture store in town since I'll soon be in the market for new furniture.  After wandering the main level of couches, beds, and dinner tables, I worked my way upstairs to what appeared to be the floor for less desirable furniture like Laz-E-Boy chairs and some ugly stuff priced at a discount.

Nothing upstairs caught my eye until I landed on these incredibly ugly specimens:

I couldn't believe my eyes.  It was a three piece Duck Commander (A&E's Duck Dynasty show) living room set.  

For those of you who have been living under a rock with the guy on the Geico commercial, Duck Dynasty is a show about this wealthy family of bearded men in Louisiana that runs a duck hunting supply company and does all kinds of silly things at work and in their home life.  The patriarch has also become a much sought after speaker in conservative circles for his ability to rattle off such zingers like this:

The man best known as the Duck Commander was briefly suspended by A&E in 2013 after he made anti-gay comments in a GQ interview.  “Start with homosexual behavior and just morph out from there. Bestiality, sleeping around with this woman and that woman and that woman and those men,” Robertson told GQ.

I actually watched an episode once and found it to be incredibly boring.  Granted, I prefer watching documentaries or reading history books, so I'm probably not the targeted audience.  But still, the episode I watched was basically a bunch of bearded guys screwing around at work while the son who ran the company tried to get the guys back to work. Then they went home to their beautiful homes and beautiful wives.  And the oldest brother rented a luxury RV to go hunting which upset a younger brother, which looked like a staged reality TV scene to create drama and conflict to be resolved at the end of the show.  You know, real reality!  

Even though I didn't find the show appealing and I don't really agree with the old man's political beliefs, I admire how this family is capitalizing on their 15 minutes of fame, which is approaching a decade and appears to have long-term staying power.  These guys went from having frosted tip hair to having full ZZ Top style beards, taking their supply company to the airwaves, capitalizing on the explosion of cable TV and America's demand for "reality" television, which networks love because they're so cheap to produce until the stars get famous and can command more money.  

The business acumen and ubiquity of the Duck Dynasty guys is really impressive.  They've been quite the sensation for nearly a decade and are now part of American pop culture, with numerous branding and merchandise deals that Forbes Magazine estimated was as high as $400 million. 

It shouldn't have been a surprise to me that they now have a branded furniture line.  Someone here in Bend is going to see that three piece living room set and realize that it's the perfect finishing touches to their "man cave".  And in the end, the Duck guys will get to cash another check for another camouflage branded merchandising product that they sold.  Good for them - only in America!