Getting to Phil's Trail in Bend with Observations on the Way

Last Friday, I took one of my favorite drives over the mountain to Bend for the day, to be by myself on the sunny side of Oregon. After spending 8 years in Southern California, I expect to suffer sunlight withdrawls during Oregon's grey and endlessly dreary winters, so I gotta chase sunshine or else I'd wind up in a mental institute like Costanza's nemesis Lloyd Braun.

Everything was smoothe sailing in the 110,000 mile Audi, moving at a comfortable 80-85 mph all the way into Warm Springs, making use of the rest stop along The Deschutes River, directly across from the highly rated Rainbow Market. Somehow, I always have to stop here to get out and walk, taking in the fresh air, and watching the rafters setting out on their two day trip down river into Maupin.

I arrived in Bend at 11am, with my first stop at the Bend Burger in the heart of downtown, where I watched a Knife River road crew employee devour a big cheeseburger, enjoying his "Putting Oregon Back to Work" per diem from this year's "Federal Re-Pave Already Well Paved Roads" campaign.

After watching Knife River guy doing his Audrey Griswold in European Vacation impersonation, just with a cheeseburger, I watched about ten COCC and OSU-Bend students nibble on their food like a meek pack of OSU-Corvallis sorority girls at Togos ordering a "6 inch turkey on whole wheat with mustard, lettuce, tomato, and pickle" AKA "The Sorority Girl Special." The COCC/OSU kids were sporting the hipster/punk look (I think that's what it is), with the pegged black jeans, pants up to the bottom of the butt, and flat-billed black hat with some kind of ass-kicking MMA/TapOut/Ed Hardy/insert Skater Company Name here logo on it.

What's with the pegged pants look anyway? I last remember it in 2nd grade. Now, it's everywhere. Strange to think of Bend, a year around outdoor paradise, is now filled with boys wearing girls pants yet doing the MMA cage fighter thing. Hmm.

Beyond hungry and finnicky eaters, it was fun watching all the dogs walking by with their owners. Everyone in Bend seems to have a dog. Mostly, the mixed breed combos you get from rescue shelters. Every store has a fresh water bowl out front. Reminds me of Del Mar, CA in that respect.

Next, it was out Century Drive to Phil's Trail, the purpose of the trip, past eye-catching new home construction. I say eye-catching, because, me, being a completely bearish and realistic housing observer and participant, can't believe they're still building new homes. Why? And don't give me that crap about "Well, their not building any more land. The price can only go up." That stupidity was acceptable in 2005 when you justified getting caught up in a $100,000 bidding war to get some sterile, "Tuscan inspired," tract house out in the middle of nowhere, in places like Temecula or Murrieta, CA, where the nearest $60,000/yr job could be found 75 minutes away.

God, I suffer from serious bouts of getting sidetracked, and repressed hostility over all the ridiculous stuff I heard people say during the fraudulently "frothy" financial bubble.

Okay, really, onto Phil's Trail. I'm serious this time.

Heading out Century Drive I see giant houses on the left and know I'm getting close. Phil's Trail awaits me at the next road, some Forest Service road marked by a little green sign with four numbers. About a quarter mile down the road, I came to 40 or so cars parked. I'm impressed, this is noon on Friday and the place is packed. People, kids, dogs, mountain bikes. Bend-onians, or Bendonites, or Bendiegoans, definitely live the good life all year around.

I set out on Phil's Trail, which is just one of a half dozen trails leaving from the parking lot for a 3-4 mile hike. The scenery is everything you'd expect from The Deschutes National Forest - sparsely placed Lodgepole Pines, creating lots of open space and visibility, where if you have to go #1 in the woods, you better be quick or else a mountain biker will be watching you from 1,000 yards out, closing in within 45 seconds. (Happened twice).

Phil's Trail has great single-track. I probably had 100 mountain bikers pass me. Every one of them was extremely friendly. It was like The Truman Show for friendliness, only with extremely fit, outdoorsy people. Gotta love Phil's Trail.

I'm heading back in two weeks to get my fill of sunshine in the high desert. By then, we should have had 14 days of rain and lots of snow on Mt. Hood. Gotta hold true to my personal pact to chase sunshine this winter.

Thank You For Smoking = National Association of Realtors

So the report just came out for July sales, and sure enough, sales volume is lower. However, the National Association of Realtors (NAR), came out with a nice little spin, "July Existing-Home Sales Fall as Expected but Prices Rise." Look at that, prices rose!!!

Unfortunately, they are horrible spinmasters. They didn't get any of the Nick Naylor gift of bullshitting people from "Thank You For Smoking" (shown above with "Cancer Boy").

American people are not really stupid enough to believe the stuff that comes out of NAR. Everybody knows there's a lot of inventory being held back by banks, that "extend and pretend" is government policy in the form of PR stunt known as HAMP (victor = banks and our grandchildren, loser = delinquent, over-extended homeowner, sorta*), that we face another 10 years of bad loans that need to be cleared off the books, working their way through the system, ever so slowly.

*Delinquent, badly underwater homeowners are kind of the "loser" until they fully understand that they can just keep re-defaulting on a HAMP loan and then play the "contest the foreclosure" charade then game the Bankruptcy system by filing Chapter 13 at least four times, stretched out over 3-5 years. Essentially, living in the house rent-free. Hey, gotta do what you gotta do. They're a loser until they realize they're a pawn, and actually can feel like a winner once again.

Anywho, the NAR President, a Realtor from Tucson, Vicki Cox, gave the usual cheerleading comment, "“Mortgage interest rates are at record lows, home prices have firmed and there is good selection of property in most areas, so buyers with good jobs and favorable credit ratings find themselves in a fortunate position.”

Back in 2007, when the market had already started to turn, NAR was encouraging homeownership since mortgage rates were still "at record lows, thus making it a great time to buy." I guess any trade association is going to tout the virtues of their product." Being the publisher of the NAR report, can best be described by our friend, Mr. Naylor, "My job requires a certain... moral flexibility."

Thank you for buying a product who's value will fall 5-15% and be stuck there for the next 10-15 years.